SkoryumPrimeira Liga · Matchweek 8 · Oct 11
Rio Ave - Nacional
Rio Ave host Nacional on Oct 11 at 17:30. The model sees a tight game (draw 46%).
POWER COMPARISON
Rio Ave
46%
54%
Nacional
50%
H2H
50%
41%
Goals
59%
MATCH PREDICTION
Rio AveDrawNacional
Double chance : draw or Nacional
CallWin or draw
LEAGUE STANDING
Rio Ave
12.
35 pts · 32 played
8-11-13 · -19
Nacional
Not in a league table
League average
2.69Goals
%48BTTS
9.41Corners
5.18Cards
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Create free accountHEAD TO HEAD6 meetings · 2021–2026
Rio Ave
2
Feb 5who was on topJan 25
Nacional
1
2 Rio Ave
3 draw
1 Nacional
GOALS IN THIS FIXTURE
3.0goals / match
8–10total goals
1/2clean sheets
2-1Rio Ave best win · Dec 29
4-0Nacional best win · Jan 25
Over 1.5
5/6
Over 2.5
4/6
Over 3.5
2/6
BTTS
4/6
DOES THE VENUE MATTER
Rio Ave at home3 matches
1W
2D
0L
3:2
Nacional at home3 matches
1W
1D
1L
8:5
Results are read from the side that hosted the match.
FORM COMPARISON
Rio Ave1W 2D 2L
Nacional3W 0D 2L
1.00
1.80
Points per game
5
6
Goals scored
6
4
Goals conceded
1.50
1.57
xG average
1.48
1.75
xGA average
%40
%60
Clean sheets
%40
%20
BTTS
%40
%20
Over 2.5
5.8
5.0
Corners
2.2
3.2
Cards
Rio Ave4W 3D 3L
Nacional3W 1D 6L
1.50
1.00
Points per game
10
8
Goals scored
9
12
Goals conceded
1.42
1.59
xG average
1.38
1.56
xGA average
%40
%30
Clean sheets
%40
%30
BTTS
%40
%30
Over 2.5
5.4
4.7
Corners
3.0
3.1
Cards
SEASON COMPARISON
16Rio Avein the table4pts
7matches
1-1-5W-D-L
5:15goals
-10diff
LDLLW
15Nacionalin the table4pts
7matches
1-1-5W-D-L
7:15goals
-8diff
LLLLL
Season profile · 2025/2026 · 21 matches
0.95
1.00
Points per game
1.03
1.32
xG average
1.93
1.62
xGA average
%10
%19
Clean sheets
%52
%62
BTTS
%67
%52
Over 2.5
3.8
4.2
Corners
2.6
3.0
Cards
PREVIOUS MEETINGS
Win probability
Rio Ave %25
Draw %46
Nacional %29
1.21Rio Ave xPuan
1.33Nacional xPuan
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ULTIMATE
Pre-match model
The model outcome split, its gap to the market, expected goals, likely scorelines and HT/FT sit behind Ultimate.
See UltimateODDS
Rio Ave2.20%42
Draw3.30%28
Nacional3.10%30
Both teams to score
Yes1.87
No1.88
33.0%BTTS
84.0%Over 1.5
50.0%Over 2.5
3.17Expected goals
Implied probability is de-margined from the listed odds.
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AFTER KICK-OFF
Tactical metrics & visuals
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Team & player heatmaps
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ML deep-dive
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Form
Rio AveLDLLW
NacionalLLLLL
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